Saturday, October 8, 2016

Cognitive Bias

Not long ago I wrote a column about the work of Dr. Jonathan Haidt, social psychologist, that included a link to a video interview (1). The subject of the column, and the interview, was Mr. Haidt's take on why Depublicans and Republicrats, conservatives and liberals, sheesh, everyone, have become so polarized.

It's occurred to me that I didn't make mention of one of Mr. Haidt's observations that I find to be not only true but also particularly important. It conveniently confirms my position that the Information Age has a huge, honking downside, its alter ego so to speak, the Dizzinformation Age, that was the subject of another fairly recent column. So, that must mean I was right, right?

(GRIN)

Cognitive bias is a widely documented and accepted phenomenon by psychologists that simply refers to the fact that when we take in information we're more likely to process it subjectively than objectively. This is what I've dubbed gut first, brain later (GFBL). Most of the time we're not the highly rational creatures we imagine ourselves to be and that we tend to react to information, at least at first, in a biased way. We may or may not change our minds when/if we step back and at least try to decide what's what, objectively speaking.

Scholarly studies aside, this seems like common sense to me. For example, I don't know about you but I know that I have a strong tendency to form opinions about others within moments of meeting them that I can't justify rationally. I quickly label and classify them in spite of the fact that I resent it when I'm aware of someone else doing the same thing to me. And, of course, in spite of the fact that I'm um, occasionally wrong when do it. It would seem that first impressions are indeed as important as often claimed.

I take solace from the fact that this sort of thing makes sense from an evolutionary standpoint. I, your dilettante about town, know that science explains our innate biases as a survival mechanism. When wandering around the jungle, hunting and gathering lunch, you and the gang have a better chance of not being hunted and gathered by someone or something else if you're wired to react quickly to the snap of a twig rather than to stop and call a committee meeting to discuss its ramifications.

Mr. Haidt points out that the internet is the most effective tool for the promotion of cognitive bias ever invented.

For example, if I google the question, "Do bigfeet exist?' I will be supplied (after being asked if I meant to say bigfoot, so many things to fix once I'm king...) in short order with the answer. Yes, definitely, and no, definitely not. Take your pick.


Now -- keep in mind the power of cognitive bias due to its long history as a successful survival strategery.

Also --  keep in mind that it's been scientifically demonstrated why it's so difficult to change someone's mind, which requires an entire column or for you to go a-googling. (I refuse to go into it any further just now as I hold this is self-evident to anyone that interacts with anyone, that is, everyone.)

Also -- you've no doubt noticed there's no point in arguing with a conspiratorially-minded person (except for fun) because they will shrug off your alleged facts as being just the bonkercockie THEY want you to believe.

Which is why --  I maintain most people will click on the links that look like they will supply the answer that they wanted in the first place.

Furthermore -- if they don't find what they were hoping to find in the first place, they will keep clicking till they do, or, give up in disgust and try to forget about it. Not you and me of course, but most people.


Haidt points out that the internet, our Information Machine (can I get a shout out for Mr. Peabody and the WABAC machine?), makes it possible to "prove" anything. In spite of the fact we have access to vastly more information (and here's more, and here's some more...) than at any time in human history, more info can, but doesn't necessarily, solve a given problem/question/argument. In fact, it can make things worse via bias confirmation. We can easily find what we want to find (and here's some more.)

Walk with me, talk with me. Let's take a brief detour down Digression Ave., we'll be back in just a sec'.


The phrase, "90% of world's data generated over last two years", or something like it, can be found all over the internet. Consistent with my stated mission, to provide enlightened infotainment, I went a-googling to try and discover the source of this information about information. According to sciencedaily.com ("Your source for the latest research news") this factoid can be attributed to a research/development entity called SINTEF (.no) -- "Applied Research, Technology and Innovation" -- as of 5.22.13.

At this point, I could've kept going and tried to discover yet more information about how fast information is accumulating but -- I have a life, I'm a dilettante, and I'm certain (as I'm sure you are) that I would find no shortage of contradictory information about information.

However, ya' gotta love the irony. I went looking for information about a commonly used alleged factoid about information and discovered that the two-year window schtick that I keep running into was posited three years ago. So for all we know, two years may now be two months, or two days. If I went  looking for more up to date statistics they would probably be out of date, and disputed, before I finished writing this column.


And we're back! What have we learned, Dorothies?

Relatively easy access to the Information Machine has and will continue to change the world at light speed in wonderful/awful ways. But, some things will never change. We need to cultivate an open mind, we need to commit to at least trying to find out what the truth actually is, not just what we would like it to be. We need to find the fine line between compromise and selling out/walking out. This is an attitude which would also give us more families with both a mom and a dad on site but that's not what this column is about so I won't bring it up.

Have an OK day.

© 2016 Mark Mehlmauer

(1) Jonathan Haidt Explains Our Contentious Culture













Saturday, October 1, 2016

The History of the World (Part Three)

In our last episode, we covered the history of the world from the invention of agriculture to the year 1776. In 1776 the world caught a major break.

In Great Britain's North American colonies a bunch of folks got together and invented the United States of America. In Scotland, Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations, invented modern economics, and taught the world how free markets would eventually lead to the need for a weight loss industry. These two events occurred while the industrial revolution was picking up steam.  A trifecta!  

Sound of screeching tires in a panic stop. I must here throw in a few paragraphs from the Reality Checks, Caveats & Premises department before proceeding. First, the three events mentioned in the previous paragraph didn’t happen by magic. The Greeks dabbled in democracy, the Romans ran a republic (sorta/kinda), the English managed to make a Magna Carta, etc. Mr. Smith wasn’t the first person to consider how economies worked and we had obviously been producing and selling stuff to each other for thousands of years before the industrial revolution came along and we got really, really good at it. But the trifecta served to usher in the modern world and made it possible for so many of us to become the spoiled, whiny, overfed ingrates of the first world and inspire the lean and downtrodden third world to aspire to someday have their own obesity epidemics.   

Second, in my semi-humble opinion, the American experiment can be defined by quoting the most important passage of the Declaration of Independence. “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” If you accept that statement as a fundamental given (whether or not you believe in a creator), perhaps the most fundamental of givens… Well, If you don’t accept that statement, I fear it’s time for us to go our separate ways, you can have the dog but I’m keeping most of the DVDs.

And third, (still here?) I freely acknowledge that the next sentence in the declaration could have been, “Assuming, of course, that you are caucasian and male.” That was undeniably the way America worked at the time and it was undeniably flawed. However, it was the local version of how much of the world worked at the time, a version of reality that lives on in not a few places. Sexism and racism are unfortunately not rare phenomena. However, I maintain that some dramatic progress has been made in the last 250 years or so, particularly when compared to however many gazillions of years it was considered normal for a given caveman to club a cutie down at the waterhole to keep his cave clean while he and the boys raided other tribes for booty and slaves.

When my mom and dad got together, roughly 75 years ago (chronologically speaking a drop in the bucket), they believed that a man’s job was to bring home the bacon and a woman’s job was to be a domestic engineer. Period. In light of the way many folks look at things today, including me, they were wrong. I’m inclined to not only forgive them, but to also say thanks. They weren’t evil, and incidentally, they were part of the generation that survived the Great Depression and won World War Two. While they were busy saving the world they didn’t know that the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow would be an era of unprecedented prosperity for the USA, the one that lasted from just after WW2 to the late 1970s. Things started getting weird after that, which I’ll get into later.

Finally, let us acknowledge the elephant skulking in the corner of the room. Homo sapiens will be Homo sapiens. While I’m profoundly grateful for the dumb luck of being a product of, and living in, a country that’s a product of Western civilization, I’m slightly smarter than I look. My gratitude is based on two things. Although I think Western civilization in general, and the USA in particular, is the best we’ve done so far, both are as flawed and imperfect as the H. sapiens that somehow came up with them. Therefore a -- We’re number one! We’re number one! -- overheated sports fan attitude can be as tacky as wearing socks with sandals. Let us be quietly smug. The coolest kid doesn’t have to tell people he’s cool, that’s part of his, um, coolness.  Also, an economic implosion here, an epidemic there, a bus-sized meteorite over there and the Dark Ages Digest will experience a sudden, dramatic increase in circulation.

Have an OK day.

[Dana, perpetually grumpy imaginary gentlereader, speaks. Wait just a minute, Sparky! yer gonna stop there? Posit that 1776 marked some sort of global game changer, then insert a "caveat" (whatever the hell that is) and then leave off? Marie-Louise (my drop dead gorgeous muse, who has finally returned from Quebec) is looking at me dubiously.]

Well, I'm running low on words. Think of it as a cliffhanger. Cliffhangers are cool, right?

[No, they're not, they're annoying. Who do you think you are, James (short, breathless chapters ending often as not with a cliffhanger) Patterson?]

Well, he is a best-selling author, and a gazillionaire.

[This ain't no suspense novel! It's a weekly column...

... With mini-posts on Tuesday and Thursday now, don't forget!

[Bonkercockie! exclaims Marie-Louise with a French accent (Bon-care-cok-E!). I'm going back to Quebec! She storms out of the room. Dana and I stare at each other in stunned silence -- for half a second.

Now look what you've done! Now look what you've done! Yikes! simultaneous exclamations. We're degenerating into a second-rate sitcom. I gotta go. Marie! I'm sorry! Come back, baby!]

© 2016 Mark Mehlmauer 

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Saturday, September 24, 2016

Mark Mehlmauer For President

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This paragraph was added at the last minute due to recent developments. The third paragraph below was originally the first paragraph of this column. The title of this column was supposed to be Gary Johnson for president, however, I was made aware only a few hours ago that he recently shot himself in the foot on MSNBC. No, not the forgivable Aleppo brain fart, it was more of the nature of the Howard Dean scream. A campaign crushing, world class, cringe-inducing faux pas of the highest order. To quote the immortal Forest Gump, "And that's all I have to say about that."

Well, almost. I've read somewhere that the dude or dudette that doesn't want to be the boss often would be a better boss than someone who does. Harry Truman comes to mind. Since Mr. Truman is dead I'm going to reluctantly volunteer for the job of POTUS. No one could possibly want this job less than I. As regular readers know I'd much rather be a benevolent king, but that's a whole other story. Please feel free to write in your own name, hell, anyone's name.

I am (fortunately/unfortunately) old enough to not only be a fan of my current favorite smarmy reality show, The Hilliam (starring Hillary and William Clinton) v. The Donald, I was around when The Hilliam's predecessor, The Billary (starring Bill and Hillary Clinton) became world (in)famous.

When I was working out the who/what/when/where/why of this column I planned on including two links, one for The Hilliam, one for The Donald. Each would connect my gentlereaders to an article that provided a concise list of the more interesting legal/cultural/moral depredations of the stars of both shows. There are many to choose from, articles as well as depredations

But I'll spare you since I'm sure most of you, even the ones not all that interested in politics, are starting to feel as though the current election cycle is similar to a lavishly funded marketing campaign for a new movie. That is, there's been so much advertising (news media coverage) for so long that you think the movie is already playing (that the election is next Tuesday).

As everyone knows, the more heavily the movie is promoted, the better the chances it will suck sweaty socks.

Instead, permit me to briefly summarize my feelings, starting with the Hilliam. The Hilliam, whose sleazy behavior in Arkansas foreshadowed their ascent to the national stage, will go down in history as an ethically challenged power couple who, though they were linked to one scandal after another, one blatant lie after another -- always got away with it.

Well, so far at least. When dealing with the Hilliam there's always the potential for yet another other shoe to drop.

Which is a shame considering that Mr. Clinton, who will always be famous for molesting a child in the White House and then, with his spouse's support, to avoid taking responsibility for his actions began lying his bum off, and then lying his bum off about lying his bum off -- wasn't a half bad president. He understood the quaint notion that in a democracy compromise is the alternative to gridlock and hyper-partisanship.

They also are self-made multi-millionaires who managed go from virtually nothing to a net worth of better than $100,000,000 bucks once they went national. All without ever producing a tangible product, unless you count influence peddling and bonkercockie.

Quick question, don't think about it, just answer. What has been Mrs. Clinton's number one accomplishment since stepping onto the national stage? Not new job, accomplishment. Times up. She's the political version of the Kardashians, famous, primarily, for being famous.

Which brings us to the Donald, this master showman, this P.T. Barnum of the new millennium.

I've been aware of the Donald for even longer than I've been aware of the Hilliam, but to be honest, I never paid much attention. I vaguely remember leafing through a friend's copy of, "The Art of the Deal" in the late 80's and being baffled by its popularity. I didn't think there was much there, there and, that boy, this guy really likes himself.

Since then, he's turned up regularly somewhere in the media and then starred in, "The Apprentice." I didn't think there was much there, there and, that boy, this guy really likes himself.

I admit that until recently I never paid much attention to him, and that it's at least partly a personality thing. I'm a follower of the strong, silent type school of manly deportment, a school currently having trouble attracting students.

So, what happens when a culture's consensus starts unraveling in the midst of rapid, economically disrupting technological change as the denizens of the planet Earth are being linked together like never before?

Donald J. Trump. Daddy's home!

"Hey, I'm rich ain't I! I'm sick of all the B.S. about the endless lawsuits, the trophy wives, the bankruptcies and business practices that left hundreds of small businesses holding the bag. Enough already about the name calling and endlessly shifting positions, that's what works! The folks want a talking mirror that'll tell 'em what they want to hear. I do what works because I'm a winner, and America loves a winner! Don't worry, daddy's gonna' fix everything, and it's gonna' be bigger and better than ever before!"

But daddy, how are...

"Daddy's a winner! I can fix anything, that's what a winner does. I'm rich ain't I? Give me a shot and I'll make everyone a winner. What else ya' gonna do? Hey, everyone knows you can't trust most of the news media, most of 'em got an agenda and besides, infotainment rules, I don't blame 'em, that's where the money is. What are you gonna' do? You got the time, or the smarts, to study economics and politics and boring crap like that? It's football season! Trust me, I'm rich ain't I?"

The Wizard of Ozz v. the Wicked Witch of the Northeast.

God bless/help? us, every-one.

Have an OK day.

©Mark Mehlmauer 2016

If you access my column via my website, you can like, react, leave a comment or share -- please scroll down. 

Mobile gentlereaders, if I've pleased you, there's additional content to be found via laptop, tablet, and desktop.